With the Six Nations wrapped up and most of the key rugby now behind us, we can now take a closer look at the Lions contenders. Part one, the forwards.
Warren Gatland has admitted that two thirds of the squad have been decided, which from an outsiders perspective looks just about right. Not more than 6 weeks from now we’ll know who the chosen few are, and for those who haven’t yet cemented their spot there is precious little time, or opportunity, to impress. Eight teams remain in Heineken Cup contention, and within those squads are a few players still under consideration, not least a couple each from Clermont and Toulon who could yet make things interesting.
One problem of basing selection entirely on Six Nations form is that most of the rugby was played in weather that had no relevance to the kind of conditions expected in Australia. Picking players best suited for damp, combative rugby probably isn’t the best choice given that the fields will be dry and fast, and the Wallabies will play up tempo, positive rugby. There is little to no chance that they’ll attempt to take on the Lions up front beyond where they have to at the set piece. Given those circumstances, the term “horses for courses” is absolutely applicable here.
Starting at loosehead prop the two certainties are Cian Healy and Gethin Jenkins. That leaves one spot open, with Ryan Grant the likely frontrunner based on tournament form. Paul James is a strong scrummager capable of playing both sides, but that versatility isn’t really relevant given the addition of the 23rd man, and he isn’t as mobile as Grant. The chances of Alex Corbisiero touring now look perilously slim. At one point he would have been considered a leading contender for a test jersey, now it seems he’ll have to be content with a spot on England’s tour and hope to receive an injury call up. A potential bolter might be Mako Vunipola. Though his scrummaging needs work, his impressive work rate both as a ball carrier and tackler might tempt the selectors. Still yet there may be another option. Andy Sheridan’s Toulon side are still in Europe, and if he shows well against Dan Cole in a couple weeks, there could well be a ticket on its way to France for the big man.
The contenders at hooker have been whittled down somewhat, as Matthew Rees is out of the race and Dylan Hartley looks set to miss out. Despite having a rough game against Italy, Rory Best is a certainty for his leadership and all-around play. That leaves Richard Hibbard, Tom Youngs, Ross Ford, and possibly Ken Owens fighting for the other two spots. Hibbard’s physicality and power in the scrum should see him get the nod, while the supreme mobility of Youngs and his improved throwing should be preferred to Ford, who is likely to be first in line as a non-travelling reserve. Owens is competitive but doesn’t really offer anything dynamic that would place him ahead of the others.
Look no further than Adam Jones, Dan Cole, and Euan Murray at tighthead. There simply aren’t any other rational contenders. Mike Ross had a miserable tournament, and Craig Mitchell just hasn’t had any time to impress. Likewise David Wilson, though he seems a capable replacement should any of the first three fall ill. Geoff Cross is a real long shot, and even further from left field might be Matt Stevens, but even a big performance for Saracens in the quarter final is unlikely to be enough for a surprise call.
Injuries and mixed form have changed the second row landscape somewhat. Luke Charteris and Bradley Davies are out injured. Richie Gray’s hamstring problem is a worry, and one that might keep him out of the initial squad. The return of Paul O’Connell is a potential boost and he is one that will surely be under the microscope in the coming weeks, but he is still an outsider at this point. Donnacha Ryan has seen his chances evaporate with a poor Six Nations, and Courtney Lawes would be a gamble given his lack of form.
It looks likely that Gatland will now take 37 players, meaning five second rowers will board the plane. Alun Wyn Jones is the first of those, of that there is no question. Geoff Parling is probably a good bet as the best lineout tactician, though he has looked questionable in the contact area and is by no means a certainty. Gatland will want at least one big body out there, so one of Ian Evans or Jim Hamilton are sure to go, and possibly both. Joe Launchbury looked good to start the tournament but faded somewhat, how much of that due to injury is uncertain. He still has a good shot at being the fifth lock based on his ability to play on the flank. An outsider with a real chance is Nathan Hines, who could very well get in should he put in a convincing performance with Clermont in the Heineken Cup. Though he is long in the tooth, he has had a good season and has both physicality and a rugby brain that would be a valuable asset.
Seven back rowers will go, with one spot reserved for Ryan Jones. He has been earmarked to lead the mid-week side and his versatility and good form make him a shoe-in. Other certainties have to be Sam Warburton and Justin Tipuric, with Chris Robshaw likely as well. Robshaw’s inclusion means that Sean O’Brien is likely to be overlooked, which would make him arguably the most unlucky to miss out after having a decent enough Six Nations. The last flank spot will be between Tom Wood and Dan Lydiate, with the latter probably preferred but like O’Connell he will have to prove his fitness in a very short amount of time.
It would be a miracle if Jamie Heaslip travels at this point. The once-favoured number eight had a massively forgettable tournament and is all but out of contention, and with his side already eliminated from Europe his chances appear to have expired. Johnnie Beattie started well and may still have a shot, but he displayed his lack of concentration, his achilles heel, on too many occasions. He is arguably the most talented back rower available and at his best he could have been a test starter, so it’s been disappointing to see him perform below his abilities. That leaves Toby Faletau as a probable inclusion. The youngster hasn’t really done anything amazing but hasn’t made many mistakes, and always has a high work rate. Gatland will still want a big ball runner, which means Ben Morgan is probably in as the only Quinnell-like option available. An outside option remains in Dave Denton. Like Beattie, he is an excellent athlete and has the potential to excel, but injury and lack of form should see him miss out.
The potential is there for a very good pack, and depending on the outcome of some injury returns, a world class one. Certainly enough there to cause the Wallabies problems, at the very least. Tomorrow, the backs.
Pack Your Bags
1 Cian Healy, Gethin Jenkins
2 Rory Best, Richard Hibbard, Tom Youngs
3 Dan Cole, Adam Jones, Euan Murray
4 Joe Launchbury, Alun Wyn Jones
5 Geoff Parling
6 Ryan Jones
7 Chris Robshaw, Justin Tipuric, Sam Warburton
8 Toby Faletau, Ben Morgan
There Or Thereabouts
1 Alex Corbisiero, Ryan Grant, Andy Sheridan
2 Ross Ford
3 David Wilson
4 Richie Gray, Nathan Hines
5 Ian Evans, Jim Hamilton, Paul O’Connell
6 Dan Lydiate, Tom Wood
7 Sean O’Brien
8 Johnnie Beattie, David Denton
