After coming up short against Argentina in a match they probably should have won, Italy welcome South Africa with only the faintest hint of sincerity. For starters the Azzurri have never beaten the Springboks. Their closest margin was 16 points, and even discarding the two horrendous beatings of 1999 the average gap is about 30. South Africa have not quite maintained their impressive Rugby Championship form, but their win over England was convincing and nothing to scoff at. Simply put, Italy are on seriously long odds to win this one.
Despite the loss Jacques Brunel has opted for only one change to the squad, with Zebre’s heavyweight Fijian back rower Samuela Vunisa making his debut on the flank in place of Simone Favaro, forced out with a neck complaint. The change is hardly like for like. Vunisa is ball carrying no8, while Favaro earns his paycheck as a ball hunting openside. Whether this Fijian should be preferred to his countryman Manoa Vosawai is another debate, but the Italian loose forwards will certainly not be lacking in the beef department.
With one game still the other side of this weekend, Heyneke Meyer has made four changes and named two new caps on the bench. Jannie du Plessis is injured and Beast Mtawarira rested, so Trevor Nyakane and Coenie Oosthuizen renew an old front row combination alongside Adriaan Strauss. In-form Lions tighthead Julian Redelinghuys wears the Bok jersey for the first time on the bench, with veteran Gurthrö Steenkamp covering the loosehead side. Schalk Burger has earned a week off, with Uopa Mohoje back in on the blindside and versatile Western Province link man Nizaam Carr set to win his first cap as an impact sub.
Willie le Roux sits on the bench this week, with Johan Goosen making his first start as a fullback, a position he has only recently taken up at Racing Métro with Jonny Sexton blocking his way to the no10 shirt. Goosen’s ability to knock over long range drop goals makes him a unique talent, and Meyer is convinced he has the goods to become a first class citizen at the back. Don’t be surprised if Kelly Haimona puts up a couple high balls early to test his courage.
It’s hard to see a way out for the Italians in this one. The Springboks are simply a better team individually and collectively, and unless Michele Campagnaro finds a way to unlock the world class South African midfield defense the only chance is through Haimona’s boot. If the Azzurri are inspired, they could narrow the gap slightly, but chances are South Africa takes this one at a canter, with the reserves helping to pile on some late misery. Springboks by 20.
ITALY vs SOUTH AFRICA
Saturday, November 22, 14:00 GMT, Padova
Referee: Jérôme Garcès (FFR)
Assistants: Pascal Gaüzère (FFR) & Alexandre Ruiz (FFR)
TMO: Gareth Simmonds (WRU)
