This weekend’s most pertinent matchup sees England host Australia to contest the Cook Cup and the number 3 spot on the IRB world rankings. Can Australia win their tour opener?
The big news of the week was that James Horwill has been dumped as Australian captain. Most pundits with ‘insider’ knowledge will tell you that this was not out of the blue, and in fact the beleaguered Queenslander was in danger of being dropped altogether had Rob Simmons not pulled out with injury.
It’s no secret that the big man’s form has not been great this year, but it’s still quite a gutsy move from his former Reds coach Ewen McKenzie to install Ben Mowen as captain in his first year of test rugby. Horwill is a proud man, a world class lock at his best, and the sort of bloke to rise to such a challenge. Expect him to be on the verge of frothing come kick off, a prospect that the England pack will not be entertaining lightly.
Mowen’s elevation to senior commandant is a reflection of his undoubted leadership qualities and reputed change room presence. His form has been solid, though unspectacular, and with Simmons out he will also be tasked with calling the lineout. Against England he will need to carry more and get some go-forward for his backs, easier said than done given the physicality present in the home side.
Tongan man-mountain Sitaleki Timani should help in that department. His strength as a carrier and tackler, not to mention weight in the scrum, should be a big boost to the side, one that many have argued should have been there throughout the Rugby Championship. Scott Fardy’s return will add a bit of abrasiveness, particularly in the tackle area, but at the expense of Ben McCalman’s all around work rate.
The backs look about the same as they have all year, with the only real talking point, James O’Connor aside, being the retention of Matt To’omua at centre instead of Christian Leali’ifano. It could be that the latter has been adjudged to be not quite match fit, and at any rate they are similar players. The Polynesian duo of Tevita Kuridrani and Israel Folau could be a point of difference with their combination of size and athleticism, but the ball has to get to them first.
The Wallaby front row has traditionally been butchered by the English, and one would have put money on that happening again were it not for Alex Corbisiero’s injury-enforced absence. Mako Vunipola and Tom Youngs are noted more for their work in the loose than the scrum, but one wouldn’t put it past them to have the edge in the tight as well.
Concussion has put paid to Geoff Parling’s participation in the match, giving Courtney Lawes the opportunity to partner Joe Launchbury in the second row. Anyone who has been watching Northampton this season will know that this is hardly a worry given the form of the man, and for some this could be the preferred pairing heading into the World Cup, though Parling and Bath bruiser Dave Attwood could have something to say about that.
One man under the microscope (or more appropriately a macroscope) will be another Vunipola off the Tongan production line. Big Billy will be making his run-on debut and his carrying game will be vital to his country’s chances. Despite his prop-like physique he has good footwork and soft hands to go with immense power. He’ll be asked to go full-out for as long as possible and when he tires Ben Morgan will come in to provide fresh legs and play a very similar role.
Lee Dickson’s good form has been rewarded with the start at scrumhalf over Lions tourist Ben Youngs. The selection hints that England will play a tactical game, at least in the early goings, and with both Owen Farrell and Billy Twelvetrees able to put boot to ball expect to see plenty of jostling for field position in the opening minutes.
If Billy Vunipola is the key man in the pack, then certainly new cap Joel Tomkins is the same in the backline. The Saracens centre has played for England before, albeit in Rugby League, and shouldn’t be overawed by the occasion. His defensive awareness will be tested by the creative backline, and whether or not the aforementioned Kuridrani and Folau get ball in space will be largely dependent on his decision making. In terms of backline play there is no bigger baptism of fire.
It’s very difficult to pick a winner in this game given the many different variables at play. Can the Australian scrum gain parity? Will Michael Hooper’s speed give him an advantage over Chris Robshaw? Can Tomkins shut down the Australian attack? Will Folau’s counterattacking nullify England’s kicking game?
There can be only one winner, unless of course it’s a draw which has happened only once in 41 matches. Twickenham can hardly be considered a fortress given that the Wallabies have won four of the last six times they have played there. The advantage has to go to Australia who have been playing together as a team for several months now. Pick the visitors to repeat last year’s result and win by 6.
