Quick Picks – Six Nations Round 5

The tournament that never was? One that had promised so much only six weeks ago has been mired in damp weather and despairingly bland tactics. Will the final weekend deliver?

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ITALY vs IRELAND
Saturday, March 16, 14:30 GMT, Rome

Three changes have been made by Jacques Brunel, one injury enforced that sees Lorenzo Cittadini start at tighthead in place of Martin Castrogiovanni. New all-time cap leader Andrea Lo Cicero is recalled at loosehead, and Simone Favaro replaces Robert Barbieri at openside flank.

Ireland had initially recalled Jonny Sexton only to have him suffer yet another injury in training during the week, so Paddy Jackson retains his spot at no10. Recovered Craig Gilroy replaces injured Fergus McFadden on the merry-go-round, and both centres have been passed fit despite suffering concussion against France a week ago. Paul Marshall should win his first cap as he takes broken Eoin Reddan’s spot on the bench.

Both sides could conceivably end up with the wooden spoon depending on the game in Paris, and both will want to end the tournament on a higher note. The Irish players have the added Lions incentive, but in all honesty the feeling must be that the ship has already sailed for many of them.

The Azzurri defended well against England and even scored the only try of the match. Historically they are much better at home, and Ireland are battered and beaten. The time is now for the first Italian victory over Ireland since 1997. Sergio Parisse by 6.

ITALY
Andrea Masi; Giovanbattista Venditti, Gonzalo Canale, Gonzalo Garcia, Luke McLean; Luciano Orquera, Edoardo Gori; Andrea Lo Cicero, Leonardo Ghiraldini, Lorenzo Cittadini; Quintin Geldenhuys, Joshua Furno; Alessandro Zanni, Simone Favaro, Sergio Parisse (capt.). RES: Davide Giazzon, Michele Rizzo, Alberto de Marchi, Antonio Pavanello, Francesco Minto, Paul Derbyshire, Tobias Botes, Tommaso Benvenuti.

IRELAND
Rob Kearney; Craig Gilroy, Brian O’Driscoll, Luke Marshall, Keith Earls; Paddy Jackson, Conor Murray; Cian Healy, Rory Best, Mike Ross; Mike McCarthy, Donnacha Ryan; Peter O’Mahony, Sean O’Brien, Jamie Heaslip (capt.). RES: Sean Cronin, David Kilcoyne, Stephen Archer, Devin Toner, Iain Henderson, Paul Marshall, Ian Madigan, Luke Fitzgerald.

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WALES vs ENGLAND
Saturday, March 16, 17:00 GMT, Cardiff

A shoulder injury to captain Ryan Jones means that Justin Tipuric and Sam Warburton will start in the back row together for the first time since their days with the u20s. The only other change sees Gethin Jenkins return to captain the side replacing Paul James at loosehead.

England have bolstered their lineout by starting Tom Croft in place of James Haskell, and recall incumbent halfbacks Ben Youngs and Owen Farrell. Joe Marler replaces Mako Vunipola at prop, while both locks have recovered from knocks enough to start.

This is the game everyone will be watching. Wales can win the championship with a 7 point victory, and Lions test jerseys are up for grabs with intriguing matchups all over the park. With a little luck, we will forget the ugly middle of the tournament and celebrate a superb rugby match filled with big hits and dramatic moments.

The form guide points to England, but they had a dip against Italy and looked a bit sheepish in areas that will not have gone unnoticed. Leaving Vunipola and Haskell on the bench means the pack is short on ball runners to make the hard yards, and with Warburton and Tipuric attacking the breakdown, this could spell trouble. Wales score a late try, with Leigh Halfpenny converting to seal the upset and the championship in a famous victory. Pick the Welsh by 7.

WALES
Leigh Halfpenny; Alex Cuthbert, Jonathan Davies, Jamie Roberts, George North; Dan Biggar, Mike Phillips; Gethin Jenkins (capt.), Richard Hibbard, Adam Jones; Alun Wyn Jones, Ian Evans; Sam Warburton, Justin Tipuric, Toby Faletau. RES: Ken Owens, Paul James, Scott Andrews, Andrew Coombs, Aaron Shingler, Lloyd Williams, James Hook, Scott Williams.

ENGLAND
Alex Goode; Chris Ashton, Manu Tuilagi, Brad Barritt, Mike Brown; Owen Farrell, Ben Youngs; Joe Marler, Tom Youngs, Dan Cole; Joe Launchbury, Geoff Parling; Tom Croft, Chris Robshaw, Tom Wood. RES: Dylan Hartley, Mako Vunipola, David Wilson, Courtney Lawes, James Haskell, Danny Care, Toby Flood, Billy Twelvetrees.

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FRANCE vs SCOTLAND
Saturday, March 16, 20:00 GMT, Paris

Philippe Saint-Andre has thrown down the gauntlet and called up his beasts. Mathieu Bastareaud replaces Florian Fritz at centre, and both Sebastien Vaha’amahina and Antonie Claassen start a test for the first time to significantly bulk up the pack. Fritz, Christophe Samson, and Yannick Nyanga instead are among the reserves.

The Scots have lost Richie Gray to a hamstring injury and have opted to hand a debut cap to Grant Gilchrist, another big lad albeit not quite as gigantic. Robert Harley is unlucky to miss out as Scott Johnson opts for the experience of Alasdair Strokosch on the flank in the only other change.

Les Bleus are in seriously unfamiliar territory here. They haven’t finished bottom of the table since 1999, and haven’t gone winless since 1969. Their form has been mostly bad, and yet in spurts they have looked very competent. On paper this side is capable of putting a beating on Scotland, but in reality who knows what will happen?

Scotland haven’t been playing badly, nor have they excelled. After much talk of their exciting outside backs, they’ve hardly touched the ball. Therein lies the key to victory in Paris. If the Scots can achieve what they haven’t yet, they can win. That said, we’ve seen nothing so far to suggest that they might do so. France by 10.

Edit: Fritz has been ruled out with a foot infection so Gael Fickou, still two weeks away from his 19th birthday, looks to win his first cap in his stead.

FRANCE
Yoann Huget; Vincent Clerc, Mathieu Bastareaud, Wesley Fofana, Maxime Medard; Frederic Michalak, Morgan Parra; Thomas Domingo, Benjamin Kayser, Nicolas Mas; Sebastien Vaha’amahina, Yoann Maestri; Antonie Claassen, Thierry Dusautoir (capt.), Louis Picamoles. RES: Guilhem Guirado, Vincent Debaty, Luc Ducalcon, Christophe Samson, Yannick Nyanga, Maxime Machenaud, Francois Trinh-Duc, Gael Fickou.

SCOTLAND
Stuart Hogg; Sean Maitland, Sean Lamont, Matt Scott, Tim Visser; Duncan Weir, Greig Laidlaw; Ryan Grant, Ross Ford, Euan Murray; Grant Gilchrist, Jim Hamilton; Alasdair Strokosch, Kelly Brown (capt.), Johnnie Beattie. RES: Dougie Hall, Moray Low, Geoff Cross, Alastair Kellock, Ryan Wilson, Henry Pyrgos, Ruaridh Jackson, Max Evans.