It’s hard to believe that we’re already at the midway point of the championship. The pivotal weekend features two Irish debuts and of course the 84th edition of Le Crunch.

ITALY vs WALES
Saturday, February 23, 14:30 GMT, Rome

To say that the loss of captain Sergio Parisse to suspension is a massive blow to Italy’s chances is an understatement. There is no other player on the planet who means so much to his team. His ball carrying, lineout ability, and overall presence are simply impossible to replace. Manoa Vosawai comes in at no8 and is a powerful runner but not even remotely in the same league.

Curiously there is no room for Robert Barbieri, who must not be fully recovered from injury despite his recall to the squad. Antonio Pavanello replaces Quintin Geldenhuys which is a considerable downgrade in second row bulk, and the iffy halfbacks Kris Burton and Edoardo Gori replace Luciano Orquera and Tobias Botes who played poorly against Scotland.

Wales did just enough to win in Paris, but after eight consecutive losses prior to that a win is a win. Rob Howley has retained the same starting XV, with the only changes coming on the bench as Alun Wyn Jones and Sam Warburton return from injury.

You can expect the Italians to put up a fight early on, and they might survive until halftime, but without Parisse and Alberto Sgarbi they will be rudderless and Wales will be intent on keeping their momentum going. The last half hour especially will be a runaway, especially when the strong bench makes an appearance, and Wales will revive their championship hopes with a resounding 20 point victory over the lacklustre Azzurri.

ITALY
Andrea Masi; Giovanbattista Venditti, Tommaso Benvenuti, Gonzalo Canale, Luke McLean; Kris Burton, Edoardo Gori; Andrea Lo Cicero, Leonardo Ghiraldini, Martin Castrogiovanni (capt.); Antonio Pavanello, Francesco Minto; Alessandro Zanni, Simone Favaro, Manoa Vosawai. RES: Davide Giazzon, Alberto de Marchi, Lorenzo Cittadini, Quintin Geldenhuys, Paul Derbyshire, Tobias Botes, Luciano Orquera, Gonzalo Garcia.

WALES
Leigh Halfpenny; Alex Cuthbert, Jonathan Davies, Jamie Roberts, George North; Dan Biggar, Mike Phillips; Gethin Jenkins, Richard Hibbard, Adam Jones; Andrew Coombs, Ian Evans; Ryan Jones (capt.), Justin Tipuric, Toby Faletau. RES: Ken Owens, Paul James, Craig Mitchell, Alun Wyn Jones, Sam Warburton, Lloyd Williams, James Hook, Scott Williams.

ENGLAND vs FRANCE
Saturday, February 23, 17:00 GMT, London

Recalls for Dylan Hartley, Courtney Lawes, and Manu Tuilagi certainly indicate that Stuart Lancaster is expecting a physical barrage from Les Bleus, and in particular a certain 115kg battering ram lurking in the French midfield. While these three are fine players, the absence of Tom Youngs, James Haskell, and Ben Morgan means that there is a serious lack of big ball runners capable of getting over the gainline in heavy traffic.

Philippe Saint-Andre has wielded the axe with grim results, chopping half the team that sputtered and stammered through the first two weekends. Gone completely are Yannick Forestier, Romain Taofifenua, Fulgence Ouedraogo, Damien Chouly, and Maxime Mermoz, while Dimitri Szarzewski, Jocelino Suta, Maxime Machenaud and Frederic Michalak have been benched.

In their places come tough-scrummaging Clermont duo Thomas Domingo and Benjamin Kayser to bolster the front row, Christophe Samson takes over the primary lineout target role, and Yannick Nyanga adds pace on the flank. The World Cup halfback pairing of Morgan Parra and Francois Trinh-Duc is restored, and a fit-again Vincent Clerc returns to the wing, with Wesley Fofana moving to his preferred inside centre spot.

On form, this is a no-brainer. England have won both of their matches, while France have lost theirs. England are a mostly settled side, with their three changes established players already within the group. France look completely ragged. England are a better team at home, the French do not travel well. All roads, it seems, lead to a decisive English victory. This means, of course, that conditions could not be more perfect for a classic upset. Don’t fall for the romanticism. Lancaster is no mug, and he will have done his homework. England quell a fierce challenge but get the job done with an 8 point win over Les Bleus.

ENGLAND
Alex Goode; Chris Ashton, Manu Tuilagi, Brad Barritt, Mike Brown; Owen Farrell, Ben Youngs; Joe Marler, Dylan Hartley, Dan Cole; Joe Launchbury, Geoff Parling; Courtney Lawes, Chris Robshaw (capt.), Tom Wood. RES: Tom Youngs, Mako Vunipola, David Wilson, James Haskell, Thomas Waldrom, Danny Care, Toby Flood, Billy Twelvetrees.

FRANCE
Yoann Huget; Vincent Clerc, Mathieu Bastareaud, Wesley Fofana, Benjamin Fall; Francois Trinh-Duc, Morgan Parra; Thomas Domingo, Benjamin Kayser, Nicolas Mas; Christophe Samson, Yoann Maestri; Thierry Dusautoir (capt.), Yannick Nyanga, Louis Picamoles. RES: Dimitri Szarzewski, Vincent Debaty, Luc Ducalcon, Jocelino Suta, Antonie Claassen, Maxime Machenaud, Frederic Michalak, Florian Fritz.

SCOTLAND vs IRELAND
Sunday, February 24, 14:00 GMT, Edinburgh

Scotland had their best game in recent memory against Italy, and have changed only one as Geoff Cross fills in for Euan Murray who has obligations with the church on Sunday. Fit-again Jon Welsh takes the vacant bench spot, and Dougie Hall returns in place of unlucky Pat MacArthur as the reserve hooker.

Declan Kidney’s side has been ravaged by injury and suspension, losing Cian Healy, Mike McCarthy, Chris Henry, Jonny Sexton, Gordon D’Arcy, and Simon Zebo. Tom Court leapfrogs David Kilcoyne into the loosehead spot, Donncha O’Callaghan wears his familiar no4 jersey, and Keith Earls fills in on the wing as he did in Dublin. Two debutants arise as highly-rated Luke Marshall looks to stake a permanent claim to the inside centre spot, while the news of the week was that 21 year old Paddy Jackson would be starting at flyhalf and not Ronan O’Gara. Devin Toner, Iain Henderson, and Luke Fitzgerald are called up to the reserves.

The Scots will be hugely confident of victory on the back of their performance a fortnight ago, and you can be sure that Rob Harley and Kelly Brown will be tasked with terrorising rookie Jackson as much as is legally possible and then some. Aside from Brian O’Driscoll and Sean O’Brien, the Irish have not looked up to scratch so far, and it’s saying something that they will be dependent on the youngsters to inspire them to a better effort. Easier said than done. A fair effort from the young lads will make the score respectable, but won’t be enough to stave off a second consecutive home victory for the kilted warriors. Scotland win by 6.

SCOTLAND
Stuart Hogg; Sean Maitland, Sean Lamont, Matt Scott, Tim Visser; Ruaridh Jackson, Greig Laidlaw; Ryan Grant, Ross Ford, Geoff Cross; Richie Gray, Jim Hamilton; Robert Harley, Kelly Brown (capt.), Johnnie Beattie. RES: Dougie Hall, Jon Welsh, Moray Low, Alastair Kellock, David Denton, Henry Pyrgos, Duncan Weir, Max Evans.

IRELAND
Rob Kearney; Craig Gilroy, Brian O’Driscoll, Luke Marshall, Keith Earls; Paddy Jackson, Conor Murray; Tom Court, Rory Best, Mike Ross; Donncha O’Callaghan, Donnacha Ryan; Peter O’Mahony, Sean O’Brien, Jamie Heaslip (capt.). RES: Sean Cronin, David Kilcoyne, Declan Fitzpatrick, Devin Toner, Iain Henderson, Eoin Reddan, Ronan O’Gara, Luke Fitzgerald.