Scotland haven’t won at the Millenium Stadium in over a decade, and it’s unlikely that duck will be broken on this occasion. Form, history, and experience all favor the home side. In fact there really isn’t any reason at all to pick the visitors barring the prediction of a catastrophic meltdown, which has as close to zero chance of happening as it gets.
Warren Gatland has made six changes to the side that sank in London, including two enforced as Leigh Halfpenny’s shoulder injury means that Liam Williams, as expected, fills in at fullback. The abrasive Scarlet is a completely different animal to the Cardiff kicker, a winding runner more apt to counterattack, but intelligence and discipline are not found among his virtues. Rhys Webb is the other injury casualty, though he likely would have made way for Mike Phillips anyway considering his poor performance at Twickenham. Rhodri Williams is handed the reserve spot in his place.
Webb’s halfback partner Rhys Priestland has also gotten the chop, though he at least retains a spot on the bench. Dan Biggar is recalled at no10 and will also handle the kicking duties in the absence of Halfpenny. The Swansea-born flyhalf has battled with Priestland for the jersey since the World Cup and though his temperament has improved he has yet to put down a truly convincing argument that he is a long-term proposition there. With only injured Rhys Patchell or Leicester longshot Owen Williams likely to be viewed as alternatives heading towards the next World Cup, his opportunity to stake a claim is now.
Up front the lackadaisical Richard Hibbard and Adam Jones are given a shot in the arm as Ken Owens and Rhodri Jones set the start, though somehow Gethin Jenkins retains his position. The younger Jones has come through his test experiences surprisingly well thus far, though his region still don’t seem to rate him at tighthead, preferring the scrummaging of Samson Lee instead. Jake Ball is back on the bench with Luke Charteris fit to resume his second row duties, and sadly Justin Tipuric is not afforded another start even though Dan Lydiate has looked stale and disinterested for the past month.
Scotland have been forced into three changes after losing Johnnie Beattie, Sean Lamont, and Tommy Seymour to injury. Ryan Wilson predictably, and disappointingly, starts at blindside with Alasdair Strokosch mysteriously parachuted in to provide back row cover. Max Evans was always going to be on the left wing, while Dougie Fife wins his first cap on the right.
Thankfully Scott Johnson has at least done one thing right, giving the Edinburgh flyer a chance to test himself at the highest level. He offers more upside than either Evans or Seymour and has the size to at least slow down George North should he find himself in his way. Jack Cuthbert earns a spot in the squad for the first time since mid-2011 after reviving his career with Edinburgh. He’s nowhere near the quality of Stuart Hogg but does offer some versatility to go along with size and a useful boot.
It looks like it will be a calm day in Cardiff so with a little luck there might be some rugby played, though Wales will no doubt take the conservative route for the first half to establish a lead. Both sides will of course be intent on ending on a higher note then their similarly disappointing results so far, and Scotland might actually feel less pressure being away from the hostile Edinburgh air and with nothing really to lose. Wales have too much class to let this slip away, however, and should take this one reasonably comfortably by around 12 points.
WALES vs SCOTLAND
Saturday, March 15, 14:45 GMT, Cardiff
Referee: Jérôme Garcès (FFR)
Assistants: Chris Pollock (NZRU) & Greg Garner (RFU)
TMO: Graham Hughes (RFU)
