Wales host France under a closed roof at the Millennium Stadium on Friday night to kick off a weekend of enormous intrigue in Six Nations rugby action. For the men in red this is a must-win match if they have any lingering title hopes, and more importantly to regain some confidence after the dreadfully one-sided battering in Dublin a fortnight ago. Warren Gatland has put several of his players on notice – shape up or ship out.
The first big name to fall is Mike Phillips, replaced at scrumhalf by Rhys Webb who makes his first test start after four caps as a reserve. Gatland has claimed that it as a reward for good regional form and while he has certainly improved since last year, it’s fair to say that this is a move meant to motivate Phillips after his weak start to the tournament. For all Webb’s attributes, his former Ospreys mentor remains a class above at his best.
Two other changes, one enforced, have been made to the run-on team. Luke Charteris is fit enough to return to the second row at the expense of Andrew Coombs, who drops out of the squad altogether, and Liam Williams comes in for injured namesake Scott, with George North sliding in to outside centre in the same formation that finished the match at the Aviva. The extra spot in the reserves goes to Dan Biggar, with James Hook left to provide cover at centre or fullback. Jake Ball is preferred to Coombs as a lock replacement.
Wenceslas Lauret has returned to fitness to replace clubmate Bernard Le Roux in the French back row in the only change to the starting side, and there are three changes on the bench. Benjamin Kayser’s tournament-ending injury means a first time call-up for Castres rake Brice Mach, and Rabah Slimani’s head-butting joust in Paris has cost him a couple weeks, allowing Vincent Debaty to return to the bench. François Trinh-Duc had no sooner been recalled only to be dropped again in favour of Rémi Talès, though Jules Plisson remains in the no10 jersey.
Much of the media build-up has focussed on the ‘mouth-watering’ confrontation between George North and Mathieu Bastareaud, but how much do such one-on-one battles really happen these days? Set moves from first phase possession where teams could isolate those kinds of match-ups are all but extinct at test level. There will be one or two collisions, but the real battle will be up front, starting in the scrum.
The squat leverage of the French front row will be up against much heavier but taller and out-of-form opposites. Charteris will be a big boost to both the Welsh scrum and lineout, though with the addition of Lauret the French loose forwards look threatening, particularly on attack. If the tight forwards can set a platform, it could spell big trouble for Wales.
It’s a difficult match to call. France have the edge on form, and will be pleased with the fast field under a closed roof. Wales will play better at home, of that there is no doubt, but are still under the cosh and will have to improve significantly to have a chance. Expect them to lift their game, competing up front and defending well, only to lose to a bit of French magic late in the game. Take the visitors by less than one score, 6 seems like a reasonable number.
EDIT: Alun Wyn Jones is a late withdrawal with a foot injury. Jake Ball starts for the first time with Andrew Coombs summoned to the bench. Penpics have been updated below.
WALES vs FRANCE
Friday, February 21, 20:00 GMT, Cardiff
Referee: Alain Rolland (IRFU)
Assistants: John Lacey (IRFU) & Dudley Phillips (IRFU)
TMO: Graham Hughes (RFU)
