All of a sudden the Wallabies don’t look so forlorn anymore. Michael Cheika’s feel-good effect on the team has been palpable, which is bad news for Wales. Warren Gatland’s men have dropped nine straight to Australia, and a couple weeks ago he must have been feeling pretty good about his chances. Even though Wales have a few less injuries to worry about, you still wouldn’t want to be betting the house on them breaking their hoodoo.
Gatland has at last been reading the writing on the walls that everyone else has been seeing, casting Adam Jones into the shadows and dropping Gethin Jenkins and Mike Phillips to the bench. These are all sensible decisions. Gareth Davies is unfortunate to miss out with injury, but Rhys Webb might have been there anyway on form. Jake Ball over Bradley Davies is a coin toss with the Scarlet probably rewarded for staying in Wales.
The big decision was moving George North to centre in the absence of both Jonathan Davies and Scott Williams. The decision was between starting Cory Allen at centre, or Liam Williams on the wing. Neither is ideal and Williams seems to get the nod based on his experience. More than a few would have suggested taking the other route, but it’s pretty much a damned if you do, damned if you don’t situation. North will be fine going forward. The issue is how he will cope defensively with arguably the form centre in world rugby opposite him in Tevita Kuridrani.
Cheika has gained some brownie points with his side by reverting to the same starting side that almost beat the All Blacks in Brisbane. The only exceptions are injury related, with Ben McCalman in for Scott Higginbotham and Sean McMahon for Scott Fardy. McMahon was outstanding in his Wallaby debut against the Barbarians, and is fully deserving of his test debut, though a full-on Welsh side is a very different challenge to the fun in the sun at Twickenham.
Uncapped Western Force prop Tetera Faulkner is the next in line to pretend to know how to scrummage, and hopefully he will have taken more notes from Matt Stevens than Benn Robinson during last week’s game. A couple familiar faces return on the bench with Will Genia and Quade Cooper ready to make an impact. Both put in a satisfactory shift against the Barbarians, but looked well short of the sharpness that marked their earlier success.
Australia’s biggest advantage might not be mental, but simply familiarity with each other. While most of the Welsh side have been playing together for years, this will be their first run-out in several months. This Wallaby squad has been training together since May, and look to be just now hitting their stride. Wales might come firing out of the gate but test rugby will be feeling a little foreign by halftime, and their fitness could struggle in the waning minutes. Take Australia to continue their domination over the men in red, Wallabies win by 10.
WALES vs AUSTRALIA
Saturday, November 8, 14:30 GMT, Cardiff
Referee: Craig Joubert (SARU)
Assistants: Jaco Peyper (SARU) & J.P. Doyle (RFU)
TMO: Graham Hughes (RFU)
