Revenge will have to be served cool and damp as Scotland look to get one back on the great upsetters – the Ikale Tahi of Tonga – in drizzly Kilmarnock. The Tongans famously ended the tenure of former Scottish coach Andy Robinson with a stunning victory in Aberdeen two years ago. Several of those players return to take part once again, but the side if anything looks a little stronger this time, having opened its tour very smartly with wins over Georgia and the United States, both in convincing fashion. The Scots have also improved, and will take great confidence from their passionate performance against the All Blacks at Murrayfield.
One potential issue might be the rising list of walking wounded. Euan Murray, Adam Ashe, Mark Bennett, and Sean Maitland have all been ruled out thanks to last week’s battle. Geoff Cross comes in at tighthead, Johnnie Beattie at no8, Tim Visser is back on his familiar left wing, and Sean Lamont stays at centre after replacing the hamstrung Bennett early on against New Zealand. Ryan Grant, Kieran Low, Alasdair Strokosch, and Duncan Taylor all find themselves among the reserves, where Chris Cusiter also returns in place of concussed Henry Pyrgos.
Tonga have named the same side that tore away from the Americans with one exception. Latiume Fosita forms an all-Northland halfbacks duo with Tane Takulua, swapping places with slightly rusty looking Kurt Morath after making a big impression off the bench last week. Doncaster scrumhalf Tomasi Palu steps in for Taniela Moa, and Sione Piukala – one of the standouts in Aberdeen – gets his first crack on tour taking the reserve spot of Otulea Katoa.
Scotland might well be considered healthy favorites to win this match, but the making of another upset are very much on the platter once again. Tonga has looked significantly more organized on offense in the last two matches, with a more patient approach being taken than in previous years. On paper the Scottish tight five looks a little stronger, but the back rows are evens if not edging slightly towards the visitors.
Look for Finn Russell’s tactical kicking to try and diffuse the potent Tongan attack, keeping them pinned down in their own end as much as possible and hoping to capitalise on mistakes and penalties. The lineout advantage has to lean towards the Gray brothers, and from there Scotland should be able to work its way into scoring position. As long as Greig Laidlaw’s boot is on song, Scotland should win this, but Tonga will make things interesting. Scotland by 9.
SCOTLAND vs TONGA
Saturday, November 22, 14:30 GMT, Kilmarnock
Referee: J.P. Doyle (RFU)
Assistants: Greg Garner (RFU) & Marius Mitrea (FIR)
TMO: Carlo Damasco (FIR)
