The final round of the Six Nations starts in Rome, where England must perform to their absolute best if they have any hope of lifting the cup. Ireland have a 49 point differential advantage, but have to win in Paris to take advantage of it. England have thumped Italy before, twice by more than 50 and in fact won by 46 only three years ago so it’s not entirely out of the question that they could overcome the gap, but it would take a monumental performance and in all reality their best bet is to secure the win and pray for a French pièce de résistance.
Stuart Lancaster has rightfully stuck behind the side which has taken him through the championship. Mako Vunipola is the only change to the run-on XV, with Joe Marler missing out for the birth of his first child. Matt Mullan takes the loosehead reserve spot on the bench. The only other change is a welcome return for Manu Tuilagi, slotting in as a three quarter reserve in place of Alex Goode. Neither change is likely to affect the side, and in actuality strengthens their offense as both Vunipola and Tuilagi are destructive ball carriers.
Italy have lost Martín Castrogiovanni but have regained captain Sergio Parisse. Sadly Alessandro Zanni has not recovered sufficiently so Joshua Furno remains on the flank. Matías Agüero is recalled to fill the prop position, slotting in at loosehead with Lorenzo Cittadini starting on the tight. Versatile Alberto de Marchi is swapped to the bench as cover out of necessity rather than form, he has enjoyed a fine tournament thus far. Robert Barbieri slips over to openside flank to replace benched Paul Derbyshire, and physical Zebre second rower George Biagi is set to make his debut as a reserve.
The simple fact is that the Azzurri have never beaten England, and that won’t be changing this time, or any time soon. Of course the set pieces will be competitive and might even edge towards Italy in the scrum, but if England move the ball this could be very reminiscent of the Irish match. Weather forecasts indicate a perfect sunny day in Rome which makes for great viewing and hopefully some great rugby.
So England will win this game, and surely by a considerable margin. How much depends almost entirely on themselves, and largely on whether Owen Farrell moves the ball quickly. Distribution is the weakest part of his game and the critics have been howling for George Ford. Can Farrell silence them with a defining performance? Expect him to play well, but perhaps Ford may at last play a part in this championship, coming on for the last 20 minutes to inspire his team on to a big score. The visitors win well, by 30, but will have to wait anxiously for some Gallic flair before any champagne can be poured.
ITALY vs ENGLAND
Saturday, March 15, 12:30 GMT, Rome
Referee: Pascal Gauzere (FFR)
Assistants: Nigel Owens (WRU) & Leighton Hodges (WRU)
TMO: Simon McDowell (IRFU)
