The pick of the weekend with two of the favorites clashing in London. This is almost like a semi-final, it’s a shame that it has to be played on a Sunday. After the thrashing in Cardiff last year England will be dead set on revenge, but it’s likely that Stuart Lancaster will tell his men to put that result out of mind and focus on performance. For both sides this will make or break their championship, a loss consigns them to the middle of the pack.
Lancaster has retained the side that has performed well in the championship, resisting calls to reach for Manu Tuilagi, a wise decision given his lack of match fitness. Luther Burrell has grown into the jersey over the last few weeks and has proved more than physically capable of filling in. The only change to the side comes at no8, where Ben Morgan subs in for injured Billy Vunipola, with classy Exeter flanker Tom Johnson coming on to the bench.
Warren Gatland is not quite as confident with his backup players, bringing back centre Jonathan Davies and shifting George North back to his more comfortable wing spot at the expense of Liam Williams. To be fair, even at less than full strength Davies is a gargantuan step up in quality from Williams, who really hasn’t shown he is of international quality. By contract Jake Ball was hugely impressive against France, pun intended, and the loss of Luke Charteris is buoyed by the return of Alun Wyn Jones.
Indeed the battle of the two second rows might prove the difference in this match. Jones and Ball are both bruising players who will relish the tight exchanges, but Joe Launchbury and Courtney Lawes are the form pairing in the tournament. They have the advantage both in the lineout and in terms of mobility, and neither are shy in the physical confrontations.
If Wales are to win they will have to make the most of their advantage at the scrum. Ireland dominated England in that aspect but failed to capitalise. Dylan Hartley has had problems adjusting hooking under the new engage and will be targeted by Richard Hibbard and Adam Jones.
That said England showed great composure under pressure and even on bad ball Morgan is strong enough to make the gainline. The Welsh attack is brutal but predictable, and while their giant wingers are menacing, they have to get the ball first. In that respect they can often be their own worst enemies, rigidly sticking with Gatland’s trademark conservative approach.
Expect England to be up for this one. They’re showing better form and have a real sense of exuberance about them. It will be an almighty battle up front, and more than 400kg of beef colliding in the midfield. This should come right down to the wire but the home side edge it, with a late penalty handing them a massive 3 point victory.
ENGLAND vs WALES
Sunday, March 9, 15:00 GMT, London
Referee: Romain Poite (FFR)
Assistants: Steve Walsh (ARU) & Lourens van der Merwe (SARU)
TMO: Simon McDowell (IRFU)
