South Africa crumbled in a shock loss in Dublin last weekend, and now head to London to find redemption. England do not look likely to make that easy. Coming off their own loss against New Zealand, the home side will also be out to make amends, but a quick glance at the record book reveals a long list of losses. England haven’t beaten the Springboks since 2006, though their most recent engagements have all been painfully close, with a draw and a one-point defeat over the last two matches.
England have kept the faith in their side with only one change. A hip injury to Semesa Rokoduguni hands another newcomer a chance, with Anthony Watson making his first test start on the right wing. Marland Yarde, the man most predicted would be starting, has been called up to the bench. Danny Care wins his 50th cap and the scrumhalf has been told to shape up or ship out after a poor performance against New Zealand. There are a few others walking the line, but Care will be front and centre with quick service absolutely essential to success.
Heyneke Meyer has retained the same squad but rotated several players. Adriaan Strauss, Schalk Burger, Patrick Lambie, and J.P. Pietersen all get the start this week with Bismarck du Plessis, Oupa Mohoje, Handré Pollard and Cornal Hendricks on the bench. Francois Hougaard has lost his scrumhalf spot to Cobus Reinach, making his run-on debut, a move that is surely a response to Hougaard’s abysmal display in Dublin rather than rotation.
The Springboks didn’t look great against Ireland. They found their usual success at the set piece, but Ireland outwitted them at the maul and Meyer will be wary of a similar tactic from England. Stuart Lancaster would also have recognized the problems met at the gainline, where Ireland threw two tacklers at every straight line runner. South Africa will have to be a bit more creative in attack this time, and hope that Willie le Roux is more accurate on attack. The fullback caused problems stepping in at first receiver but made a few bad decisions that led to turnovers.
Opposing eightmen Billy Vunipola and Duane Vermeulen each had relatively quiet matches last weekend, and both will have a big impact on the outcome. If Vunipola can put England on the front foot it could give the dancing feet of Kyle Eastmond a shot at unlocking an intimidating Springbok midfield. Similarly Vermeulen’s ability to win the heavy collisions can change a game on either side of the ball. The combination of Reinach and Lambie should play a little closer to the advantage line, and whether Vermeulen can get the England defense backing up or not could dictate how the Boks approach breaching the line.
Whatever happens it promises to be a fascinating confrontation between two of the world’s top sides. As in last week, a win for England would be a massive psychological boost ahead of the World Cup. Another loss and Lancaster might soon be pulling out strands of hair. It’s a tough call but the edge in big game experience goes to the Springboks. Take South Africa by 5.
ENGLAND vs SOUTH AFRICA
Saturday, November 15, 14:30 GMT, London
Referee: Steve Walsh (ARU)
Assistants: Jérôme Garcès (FFR) & Nick Briant (NZRU)
TMO: Eric Gauzins (FFR)
