Australia hope to put a stop to a three-match losing skid against the Springboks at the Oval, but if recent form is anything to go by it will be hard going. The Wallaby pack was bullied by the All Blacks in Auckland and yet looks almost identical, and instead it’s the backs that get a reshuffle. With rain also forecast in Perth, it doesn’t really add much in the way of optimism.
In fact the only change up front is a bit of a downgrade, with Nathan Charles suffering a pectoral tear and now ruled out for a few months. His loss means that 4th choice hooker James Hanson has to step up with Saia Fainga’a back in the squad as cover, but even he could be a late withdrawal with his wife due to give birth. Should he drop out, it will be 33 year old Josh Mann-Rea who could make an incredibly unlikely debut.
The backs are wildly different, thoughly slightly confusing once more. Pat McCabe’s unfortunate retirement due to yet another neck injury will be heavy on the minds, and it’s his old Brumbies mate Adam Ashley-Cooper who moves one step wider to take his place on the wing. Tevita Kuridrani returns at centre after impressing in his cameo against New Zealand.
The big changes, of course, are at the halfbacks, where ineffectual Nic White and Kurtley Beale have been dropped in favour of Waratahs combination Nick Phipps and Bernard Foley. There was a noticable rise in tempo when they came on against New Zealand, and after an outstanding Super Rugby season together they will be brimming with confidence. The tactical kicking and solid tackling of Matt To’omua means that Beale won’t get a chance to have a go at no12 just yet, though surely it must be on the pipeline sooner than later.
Interestingly Ewen McKenzie has opted for a 6-2 bench split, with a bruising confrontation up front expected. James Horwill was tipped by many for a recall to the run-on side but will have to settle for a bench spot, with Willie Skelton a surprise omission given his obvious advantages in the tight. Matt Hodgson provides extra back rower cover, though it’s more likely to take off Wycliff Palu than captain Hooper.
South Africa have freshened up their pack, recalling Beast Mtawarira and handing Adriaan Strauss a starting role. Victor Matfield returns in place of Lood de Jager, and Juan Smith drops out of the squad after looking a bit behind the pace in Salta. Marcell Coetzee starts on the flank, combining with Francois Louw to form a very menacing duo to attack the breakdown.
Morné Steyn’s dominant kicking game returns at the expense of Handre Pollard, and Damian de Allende moves to the bench to make room for fit-again Jan Serfontein at centre. Two new props in Trevor Nyakane and Marcel van der Merwe sit on the bench, which also contains recalled Patrick Lambie and debutant Warren Whiteley. The Lions captain is fresh off a winning run with the Blitzbokke at the Commonwealth Games, and offers a more mobile linking option to contrast the bullocking Duane Vermeulen.
This one seems pretty straightforward. South Africa will look to play field position and dominate up front, Australia will have to chance there arm and play with tempo in the rain to score points. It won’t be easy and if it comes down to a kicking dual, the money has to go on Steyn to win it. Look for the Boks to make a mess of the Wallaby pack early, and force Australia to play catch-up in the rain. South Africa by 6.
AUSTRALIA vs SOUTH AFRICA
Saturday, September 6, 10:05 GMT, Perth
Referee: George Clancy (IRFU)
Assistants: Glen Jackson (NZRU) & Mike Fraser (NZRU)
TMO: Ben Skeen (NZRU)
