The Waratahs might have emerged victorious in Super Rugby, but that doesn’t necessarily translate into success for Australia when the All Blacks come to town. With seven of those winners among the Wallaby starting XV, one supposes they will take some confidence from the win, and surely they will, but the All Blacks are not the Crusaders, and those five members of the side who did play that day are all experienced test players who already boast several victories on Australian soil.
Steve Hansen will roll out a largely predicatable side, with perhaps the only surprise coming at fullback, with Ben Smith at last selected in his favoured fullback spot at the expense of Israel Dagg. The open wing spot has gone to Cory Jane, with Charles Piutau left to wait and wonder for at least this week. Conrad Smith has returned home with his wife due to give birth, meaning Malakai Fekitoa gets his first shot at the Championship. A different animal indeed, but not one to offer respite.
Aaron Cruden is once again called upon to deputise for injured-again Dan Carter. Rugby fans will be hoping this latest run of problems resolves itself before the World Cup. Beauden Barrett is consigned to the bench, but can’t be far behind Cruden after continually impressing in his cameo appearances.
The mighty forward pack remains intact, with the return of Jerome Kaino to the big show the main point of interest. He’ll be tasked with shutting down the power running of Wycliff Palu, a tasty battle that will be key in shutting down Australia go-forward. Tony Woodcock’s long-term injury means that Wyatt Crockett gets first shot at the no1 jersey, with uncapped Joe Moody providing cover alongside Ben Franks on the bench. Though the Wallaby scrum is not well thought of, this might be an area for them to attack, or at least hold parity.
Australia by contrast field a side with plenty of unknowns. The loss of both Stephen Moore and Tatafu Polota-Nau gives Nathan Charles his first crack as a starting hooker. While he has impressed for the Force this season, this is a big step up and he will certainly be under pressure at both scrum and lineout. In the air he’ll have to succeed with two unfamiliar jumpers, though both are accomplished ball winners. Sam Carter’s return to fitness means James Horwill misses out once more, and this time completely as Will Skelton is preferred as second row cover.
The real surprises are in the backs. Bernard Foley has inexplicably been dropped in favour of his Waratahs mate Kurtley Beale, with slightly out of form Matt To’omua retained at inside centre. Of course it’s Beale who has worn the no12 jersey all Super Rugby season, and To’omua the no10, but the latter has been preferred in the midfield by Ewen McKenzie for some time now. This isn’t exactly a complete gamble as Beale has plenty of experience at first receiver, but it is a bit extraodinary given Foley’s fine form. On the other hand tt would have surprised few had Beale been preferred to To’omua.
Elsewhere Adam Ashley-Cooper is pulled back into the midfield in place of Tevita Kuridrani, with experience preferred over x-factor. With Nick Cummins’ decision to head to Japan and Henry Speight still ineligible, and injured besides, two players who prefer the midfield adorn the wings. Both Rob Horne and Pat McCabe are strong players but are unlikely to worry their considerably more dynamic All Black counterparts. Given the selection is seems likely that Australia will attack with hard running lines and use the stepping of Beale to find holes for their most potent attacking weapon, Israel Folau.
This should be a cracking encounter, as most Blesidloe Cup matches are, but this time there is a little extra spice as the Wallabies will look to build on the Waratah success. Much will depend on Beale’s ability to drag in defenders and Palu getting over the advantage line. If either come up short, it could be a long day for the home side. They’ll be fired up, however, and should defend well at the very least. Expect New Zealand to find the cracks, but not too easily. Take the visitors to win by 10.
AUSTRALIA vs NEW ZEALAND
Saturday, August 16, 10:05 GMT, Sydney
Referee: Jaco Peyper (SARU)
Assistants: Romain Poite (FFR) & Stuart Berry (SARU)
TMO: Shaun Veldsman (SARU)
