The biggest match of the weekend comes first, as Ireland try to halt the Welsh march towards a three-peat at the Aviva on Saturday. Respective captains Paul O’Connell and Sam Warburton each return to the starting XV, with the former laid low with a chest infection last week and the latter a precautionary reserve. Both will be intimately familiar with their team psyches, having played together in the victorious Lions series only a few months ago.
Only one further change has been made to Ireland, with the vastly experienced Gordon D’Arcy recalled to partner Brian O’Driscoll at centre in place of unfortunate Luke Marshall. The defensive strength of D’Arcy likely swayed Joe Schmidt’s decision, with powerhouse Jamie Roberts lining up opposite. Dan Tuohy is unlucky to be shifted back to the bench after a strong performance last week, with Devin Toner again preferred in the no4 jersey.
Wales have lost Luke Charteris to a hamstring injury, with Andrew Coombs asked to fill in, and bruising Scarlets lock Jake Ball summoned to the bench. Gethin Jenkins has passed a fitness test to resume his spot at loosehead in place of Paul James, and Warburton’s return means that Justin Tipuric is once again resigned to reserve duty. Despite coming through his return to regional action unscathed, Jonathan Davies will have to wait at least another fortnight to make his return to national colours.
The weather forecast is mild but slightly wet and a little windy, so nothing out of the ordinary there. Expect this to be a real battle, especially in the opening minutes as each pack attempts to establish dominance, and more importantly field position. In that regard Ireland have the edge in the form of Jonny Sexton’s boot. Though Rhys Priestland is certainly capable of doing the job for Wales, his form has not been great in recent months.
That said there is no comparison in terms of firepower in the two teams. The Welsh backs are positively gargantuan and while the Irish line may be resilient, it won’t resist 80 minutes of battering. Dan Lydiate will likely be tasked with shutting down Jamie Heaslip, leaving Cian Healy as their only real threat at getting over the gain line.
This will be close game, with Ireland possibly creeping ahead with penalties at some point, but their bodies will not be able to match their resolution, and Gatland-ball Supreme will grind them down until the line breaks start to occur. Wales take this one by 7, with Leigh Halfpenny drawing them level and one of the wingers striking the killer blow late in the match.
IRELAND vs WALES
Saturday, February 8, Dublin, 14:30 GMT
Referee: Wayne Barnes (RFU)
Assistants: Glen Jackson (NZRU) & J.P. Doyle (RFU)
TMO: Graham Hughes (RFU)
