Revenge is a dish best served cold. The icy veins of the All Blacks will no doubt be running thick as they return to the place of their last defeat.
ENGLAND vs NEW ZEALAND
Saturday, November 16, 14:30 GMT, London
This is being heralded as the match of the weekend, if not the entire November test series, and for good reason. Who could forget the incredible English performance last year? Since the first match of the World Cup the champions have drawn once with Australia but beaten only on that single occasion, a memory that has no doubt haunted them all these long days since.
England are largely the same squad that played that day, with the exception of three key absences. Gone are starring centres Brad Barritt and Manu Tuilagi, who each enjoyed the game of their lives. Alex Corbisiero limped off during the week and Ben Morgan will have to wait for his turn on the bench, so too lock Geoff Parling and fullback Alex Goode. In their places are Billy Twelvetrees, Joel Tomkins, Joe Marler, Billy Vunipola, Courtney Lawes, and Ben Foden.
The All Blacks are even closer to identical, missing only Conrad Smith and Cory Jane, replaced by Ben Smith and Charles Piutau respectively. Even the bench is nearly the same, with Victor Vito and Piri Weepu the only ones missing. One year on and this is as close to a perfect rematch as you get in international rugby.
Last year’s match was tainted in the aftermath by complaints of illness in the All Blacks camp, a rumour eerily reminiscent of a certain final played in the mid ‘90s. There will be no such excuses this time, but there may not have to be. If last week’s test against Argentina is anything to go by, New Zealand have little to worry about.
England are a better team than they showed against the Pumas, however, and they have a tendency to raise their game when met with a suitable challenge, though Welsh fans might disagree. The differences this time around are evident in three spots.
Brodie Retallick and George Whitelock are by some distance the form lock pairing in the world at the moment, with their incredible work rate at the breakdown their most compelling supporting evidence. The midfield of Billy Twelvetrees and Joel Tomkins is conceding nearly 100 caps to their opposites, and given Matt To’omua’s recent success in breaking the line one can only wonder what Ma’a Nonu might achieve. Lastly, and most tellingly, the combination of Aaron Smith and new centurion Dan Carter is one English fans can only dream about.
Indeed the side plot to all this is the celebration of Carter’s career. The best flyhalf in the modern game’s short history was desperately unlucky to miss out on the World Cup finals, and his teammates will want to put on a show for him in his moment of glory. Top it off with a desperate desire to improve on their narrow victory over the French and you have the makings of a terrible ending for this English side.
Given the stakes and recent form, it’s nearly impossible to argue convincingly that England have more than a punter’s chance to win. Come the final whistle New Zealand will have their revenge, the only question is to what extent. Expect the All Blacks to be fuelled with contempt for their opponents from start to finish, piling on the misery as England fail to stem the black wave on their way to an undefeated season. New Zealand win by 15.
Referee: Craig Joubert (SARU)
Assistants: Nigel Owens (WRU) & Francisco Pastrana (UAR)
TMO: Gareth Simmonds (WRU)
