If the second row is an area of strength for the Lions, then the back row features an absolute embarrassment of riches. You could easily fill two highly competitive touring squads with the quality of players available, and such is the competition here that you can easily imagine the selection debates taking as long to decide these few spots as the rest of the touring party combined. Each of the home unions can nominate at the very least their first choice trio and it’s safe to say that whoever makes the cut, there will be some outstanding players left behind.

Specialists are the way to go, according to Warren Gatland so we’re likely to see two of each position, with possibly one extra cover-all type, which does streamline the selection process but only just. The absolute lock on the blindside must be Dan Lydiate, the player of the 2012 Six Nations and the most consistent tackler in the north not named Thierry Dusautoir. Lydiate is currently recovering from ankle surgery and he is in a race to be fit for this year’s tournament, but he should be good to go in time for the tour regardless.

The other favoured no6 would be Ulster powerhouse Stephen Ferris, who looked destined to start there on the last Lions tour but for injury to strike, an all-too-often occurrence for him but hardly a surprise given the reckless abandon with which he throws himself about. Indeed the big man is recovering from his own ankle surgery, though a reportedly less involved one than that of his Welsh counterpart.

Another member of the ’09 tour was Leicester’s Tom Croft, but he too is recovering from surgery on a bad neck injury suffered in April. After being initially forecast to return in October, he is now out until mid-January at least, and one wonders if he will be the same player once he does come back. It would take some feat to make the tour at this point, particularly as his replacement with England, Tom Wood, has been in outstanding form and looks a solid contender himself. The Northampton vice-captain might not have the bulk or power of the favourites, but he makes up for it with superb skills, work rate, and lineout ability.

The outsiders at this point are Scottish captain Kelly Brown, who also sort of falls into the cover-all category, and similarly James Haskell, struggling to find a place in the starting England back row. Alasdair Strokosch has the type of dogged physicality that you want, but lacks a bit in size and offensive presence. Twice-tourist Ryan Jones is another long shot and he might also be considered for the lock/back row position, where his leadership and experience would be highly valued.

The competition for the no7 jersey has narrowed since Gatland’s preference was made clear, and only injury at this point will keep Sam Warburton from occupying one of the slots. On recent form you wouldn’t say he would be a candidate for the tour captaincy, but he is a class player and if he can find another gear for the Six Nations he will vault back into contention. His nearest Welsh rival, Ospreys tyro Justin Tipuric, also looks a serious contender for a tour spot though not without challenge.

It’s doubtful a couple seasons ago anyone would have named Ross Rennie as a likely Lion but as far as pure openside flankers go there are few who stack up to the forager from Edinburgh. In fact, it might be fair to say that in order to find a similar such player, you would have to go across the channel and way down past the Dardennes in the south of France. Monsieur Armitage, Steffon version, has in the past flattered to deceive at international level, and Stuart Lancaster has made it clear that he is outside his consideration for the white jersey. Only a fool, however, would count him out from being a bolter in the squad given his rich vein of form for Toulon over the past two seasons. With the muscular David Pocock beckoning from the south, you can be sure that Gatland will have one eye firmly fixed on the pocket battleship despite his English omission.

Incredible as it seems, the captain of the side that defeated the All Blacks barely a week ago is at this point on the outside looking in. Chris Robshaw is a fine player but his lack of dynamism means he will only be considered for the versatility role, and even then he must be considered an underdog. The leader there is surely Sean O’Brien, a man many would have, and may still, think of as a shoe-in for selection on either flank. Unfortunately for the 2011 European Player of the Year, he falls into a similar category as the England captain. To be sure he is one of the most powerful ball carriers available but he doesn’t fit particularly well in the grand scheme of back row balance that appears to be favoured by Gatland. Still, he is an ideal candidate for an impact sub role and it would seem particularly harsh if he were not selected to do just that.

The battle for the critical no8 jersey appears to be a straight choice between the best of the four unions. Given his recent appraisal as a potential tour captain and incumbent status, we can assume that one of the spots will go to Jamie Heaslip. The Leinster link-man has had some slow days in the past twelve months but appears to be returning to something close to his best. That leaves three players to contend for the other opening.

Dragons dynamo Toby Faletau will become the first Tongan-born Lion when he is selected, though it might not be this tour. He is very much in contention, both for a no8 spot and as a utility back rower, but his similarity to Heaslip as a continuity player rather than an out-and-out ball runner might hinder his chances somewhat. Based on pure power, Rennie’s Edinburgh clubmate David Denton could be a front runner for the vacancy. As an athlete he is the best of the bunch and offers another lineout option, which might just give him the edge over his English competitor Ben Morgan. The Gloucester man is also a bit of a beast with ball in hand but more inclined to lift than jump, and not quite as fleet of foot. It’s a serious conundrum indeed and the arguments will go right through Six Nations and on into the Heineken Cup until the final announcement is made somewhere around the 1st of May.

Pack Your Bags
6 Dan Lydiate, Stephen Ferris
7 Sam Warburton
8 Jamie Heaslip

There Or Thereabouts
6 Tom Croft, Sean O’Brien, Tom Wood
7 Steffon Armitage, Ross Rennie, Justin Tipuric
8 David Denton, Toby Faletau, Ben Morgan