After a difficult session of adjudicating the merits of the forwards, we now examine those of the contenders in the backs. It’s a little easier to do, but only just!

Before the tournament it would have been easy to put your money on Ben Youngs, Mike Phillips, and Danny Care to be the three scrumhalves taken, and after the tournament that’s still not a terrible bet, but Care seems to be trying to do as much as is humanly possible to keep himself out of the side. Maybe it’s a case of him trying too hard? Whatever it is, his decision making has been poor, and his execution even worse. Based on Six Nations form, it’s really impossible to select him over Greig Laidlaw or, surprisingly, Conor Murray.

The Scottish halfback has been good value throughout and offers versatility, level headedness, leadership, and excellent short-range goal kicking. There really are few holes in his game in terms of the classic halfback skill set, the only knocks might be that he is physically underwhelming and doesn’t have that explosive speed off the mark like Care does. Murray would have been on very few lists in January, but has picked up his game remarkably, seemingly in response to being asked to take the pressure off Paddy Jackson. His tactical kicking has been very good, and he is the closest, physically speaking, to Phillips available. The edge, one suspects, might go to Laidlaw, but there is a very thin line between the three.

The battle for the no10 jersey also appears to have been whittled down to four contenders. Jonny Sexton is in. His foot injury is a slight worry, but if anything it should keep him fresh for the tour. Owen Farrell is also assured of his place, and his ability to cover centre as well means that James Hook, who has hardly had a look-in at all, will not be required. The third spot looks to be Dan Biggar. By all accounts his attitude has improved, and certainly his on-field performance has been excellent.

The only issue with selecting these three is that collectively they have zero previous Lions experience, and only Sexton has even been to a World Cup. Given that Biggar is only an option at flyhalf, it might be tempting to opt for Jonny Wilkinson, a man with an impeccable resume and of character beyond reproach. If he can guide his Toulon side to a Heineken Cup semi final, do not be surprised if his name is called on April 30th at the expense of Biggar. If, by some chance, Sexton’s foot or hamstring causes further problems, Wilko is a certainty.

The leading centres had a difficult tournament, with bad weather and a general reluctance of sides to play expansive rugby playing their part, but for the most part they came good at the end. Jamie Roberts and Jonathan Davies showed enough against England to justify their inclusion, and Brian O’Driscoll was the classiest centre on show once again, one abject foot placement aside. The fourth spot, however, is a bit a conundrum.

Manu Tuilagi is the most obvious contender, but there are problems with his selection. Not least is the balance, as he is primarily an outside centre, as are O’Driscoll and Davies. Any of them could do a job at no12, but is it a risk worth taking? Tuilagi, at his best, is a destructive force like no other, but he had a terrible game in Cardiff and showed his limitations. His distribution skills have always been lacking, but he also had a crucial knock on and his defensive decision making was poor. Australia traditionally attack around the no13 channel which means it’s crucial to have canny operators there. Both Davies and O’Driscoll are noted for their defensive prowess.

Given that, it’s not out of the realm of possibilities that Tuilagi will be overlooked, and a genuine no12 option selected. Brad Barritt is a quality defender, but doesn’t offer anything beyond the skill set of Roberts. On the other hand, Billy Twelvetrees has everything the selectors might look for as an alternative. He has undoubted footballing skills, physical presence, and showed in his Six Nations debut that he is unfazed by the pressure of international rugby. One can’t help but think that Stuart Lancaster missed a trick by leaving him on the bench, and Gatland might just opt for his varied skills over the one-trick ox from Leicester. It would not be a move without precedent – one only need look at Will Greenwood’s selection in 1997 as a successful example.

The Scots will be pining for Matt Scott, who admittedly has had a bit of a breakout tournament, and the Irish for Luke Marshall, so promising on debut. Both have similar attributes to Twelvetrees having played no10 in age grade rugby and possessing all around skills to go with physical strength, but neither have quite the same size, offloading ability, nor air of confidence about them. Another option yet still would be to include both Twelvetrees and Tuilagi, with the latter selected as a wing, but there are better options out wide, as we will find out now.

Six spots remain for outside backs, and given the versatility of two leading contenders, three are likely to be regular fullbacks. Leigh Halfpenny has been nailed on for some time, and received the golden seal of test certainty during the tournament. Whether he plays right wing or fullback has yet to be seen, but he will be there. George North is the next up, no question there. Now it gets interesting.

On sheer try-scoring ability, you would have to think Alex Cuthbert gets in. The problem is that the same could be said for Tim Visser. In a straight comparison, Cuthbert probably has a little more gas, but Visser tends to come off his wing to sniff out tries a little more often. If Visser had been on the Welsh right wing, would he have scored the same tries that Cuthbert did? Chances are, yes. Visser appears to be the better tackler, but both have problems with defensive alignment. It’s not an easy choice between the two, though Gatland’s familiarity with Cuthbert could well be the deciding point.

The name most people would want to see challenging for the no14 jersey is Tommy Bowe. His class is undoubted, but he is recovering from a knee injury, which is infinitely more troubling for a winger than a shoulder or neck problem. Having missed the Six Nations in its entirety and looking increasingly unlikely to feature in the European quarter final against Saracens, his inclusion would be a massive gamble and considering the other options who are fit, he has to be considered a long shot at this point.

Another recovering Irishman, however, appears to be very much in Gatland’s thoughts. With two giant wingers looking likely, the creative and unpredictable Simon Zebo has that x-factor about him that is what selectors look for. He is as close to a pure finisher as it gets, and if he can prove his fitness, which looks very doable, he has a real chance of getting on the plane. His fellow countryman Craig Gilroy might have hoped to be challenging as well, but just didn’t get enough opportunities to impress in the Six Nations.

If neither Bowe nor Zebo look quite up to scratch, the alternative is Sean Maitland. The adopted Scot had few scoring opportunities but looked composed and effective in both attack and defense. His professionalism has been noted and on the firm grounds of Australia his pace would be useful. Without question he is ahead of English duo Mike Brown and Chris Ashton. The former played reasonably well but was shown up for pace by Cuthbert, while Splashton had an abysmal tournament in all aspects and is nowhere near consideration at this point.

That leaves us with two fullbacks to choose. Stuart Hogg is the best option in terms of counter attacking skill, and his trampling of Alex Goode in the English test left no doubt who should be preferred of the two. Indeed it was the disappearance of both Goode and Ben Foden as legitimate candidates that was arguably a bigger story than the re-emergence of Hogg. Both had been prime contenders at one time or another, and both have slipped drastically from form or injury.

Of the classic fullbacks, the choice is Rob Kearney. His team’s performance did him no favours, but he remains solid under the high ball and has a strong left boot that can dissuade teams from attempting to win a territorial battle. The only man, at this point, who seems capable of usurping him might be Lee Byrne. The Clermont fullback also has a howitzer left foot, and runs strong attacking lines. Counting against him is that he has at most two games to show something special, but the chance is there.

Pack Your Bags
9 Mike Phillips, Ben Youngs
10 Owen Farrell, Jonathan Sexton
11 George North
12 Jamie Roberts
13 Jonathan Davies, Brian O’Driscoll
14 Alex Cuthbert, Leigh Halfpenny
15 Stuart Hogg, Rob Kearney

There Or Thereabouts
9 Danny Care, Greig Laidlaw, Conor Murray
10 Dan Biggar, Jonny Wilkinson
11 Tim Visser, Simon Zebo
12 Billy Twelvetrees
13 Manu Tuilagi
14 Tommy Bowe, Sean Maitland
15 Lee Byrne