There seems to be an awful lot of optimism swimming around Irish circles at the moment for this one. Anything but a Springbok victory would be a miracle. South Africa is fielding the very same side that toppled the All Blacks in Johannesburg. Meanwhile Ireland are without Lions tourists Cian Healy, Rory Best, and Sean O’Brien. Then, of course, there’s that centre pairing. The task couldn’t be any tougher.
Everyone knew the day was coming when Brian O’Driscoll would call it quits, and while the summer tour has come and gone it’s now that we’re really seeing the next chapter in the Irish midfield. Amazingly it’s a combination nobody predicted. Most thought it would be either Robbie Henshaw or Jared Payne at no13, with Gordon D’Arcy keeping things steady. Instead it’s a highly unusual Henshaw-Payne pairing that runs out on Saturday. It’s particularly odd given that Henshaw has never once started a professional match at no12, and more than a few people will tell you that Payne is a better fullback than a centre.
How exactly that will work out is anyone’s guess, but it will likely determine whether the game is closely fought or a runaway score. The Springboks will certainly look to test their mettle early on, which could spell real trouble for the home side. The backs otherwise look quite tidy, with Jonathan Sexton fit to take part after recovering from a cracked jaw.
The front row is an issue from an Irish perspective. Jack McGrath is coming along nicely but he is no Cian Healy and this will be his toughest test to date. Sean Cronin will have to be spot on with his throwing, though to be fair Rory Best’s hasn’t been to flash lately either. Mike Ross lumbers into this one on the tail end of a groin problem, and should he falter it will be down to Rodney Ah You to fill in, with both Martin Moore and Nathan White ruled out with injury.
South Africa are amped up and haven’t lost on their end-of-year tour since before the 2011 World Cup. They have some injury problems of their own but have shown no signs of it affecting them. Handre Pollard seems to improve with every game, and Willie le Roux has given them an extra dimension on attack. They really look unstoppable at the moment.
Of course weather is the great equalizer, and with rain on the menu in Dublin the tables will slip ever so slightly in favour of the home side. Jonny Sexton knows the Aviva’s pitch better than anyone, and Rob Kearney is as steady as they come under the high ball. The battle in the air between Paul O’Connell and Victor Matfield is like something out of Jurassic Park, or at least the Golden Oldies tournament taking place in Bermuda next week. This will be a full-blooded, attritional encounter, but South Africa have too much class to let it slip by. Give Ireland a little extra credit for being at home and on account of the rain. Springboks win by 12.
IRELAND vs SOUTH AFRICA
Saturday, November 8, 17:30 GMT, Dublin
Referee: Romain Poite (FFR)
Assistants: Mathieu Raynal (FFR) & Alexandre Ruiz (FFR)
TMO: Jim Yuille (SRU)
