Much has been said in the press about the ‘weak’ England side sent to do battle in the first test, but is it really that bad a selection? Of those reinforcements on the way for the second test, only a handful can really be expected to step straight into the starting lineup, and even then a couple of those could be considered contentious. Of course that doesn’t mean that the tourists are any more likely to win, but the catastrophic blowout that some are predicting seems a bit over the top.
A better argument might be that the bench looks a bit thin, particularly in the front row, and there is a real question mark as to what will happen if either Kyle Eastmond or Manu Tuilagi go down. Presumably it would by Jonny May sliding into the midfield, or perhaps debutant Chris Pennell, but either seems a terrifying proposal given the opposition. In that sense it was the injury to Billy Twelvetrees that has done the most damage to the side, as Ma’a Nonu now looks across at a channel guarded by Eastmond and Freddie Burns, the two smallest players in the English side.
The forwards provide a little more comfort, with really only Rob Webber a concern, and then mostly because he’s only barely returned to fitness. If any player on tour can feel aggrieved to be overlooked it is Dave Ward, surely the in-form hooker in the country over the course of the season. While he might have been preferred to Webber to start, it’s particularly puzzling that his clubmate Joe Gray, who himself saw limited action this season, is called to the bench instead.
Dave Attwood is another who can consider himself unlucky, though selecting a test Lion and proven lineout operator could hardly be considered a slight. James Haskell has played his way back into contention with some strong end-of-season form and provides much more bulk than Tom Johnson, while even Burns’ nomination ahead of poster boy Danny Cipriani is excusable given his more recent exposure to the England camp and the limited preparation time.
Steve Hansen’s All Blacks have sprung few, if any, surprises. Kieran Read’s worrying concussion issues opens the door for Jerome Kaino’s long-awaited return, while the absence of Dan Carter and Julian Savea only provides opportunities for Aaron Cruden and Ben Smith, both top class players in their own right. Three uncapped players adorn the reserves bench, but anyone who has paid any attention at all to Super Rugby this season would be well aware that Patrick Tu’ipulotu and Malakai Fekitoa were going to be wearing the black jersey sooner than later.
If there are question marks in the home side it might be in the old bones of the team, with Brodie Retallick the only starter under the age of 25. Can Richie McCaw still cut it at test level? When will Conrad Smith begin to look ordinary? Will Tony Woodcock and Keven Mealamu hold on through to the World Cup? Questions like these can seem strange when we’re talking about this calibre of player, but they have to be looming in the back of Hansen’s mind as much as ours.
The pessimist might point out that England haven’t won at Eden Park since 1973, the realist could retort that they’ve only played there thrice since. The optimist could say that after 40 years England are due a win, or would that be the pianist? New Zealand will win, of that there is no doubt, except of course for the fact that the visitors have absolutely nothing to lose and the talent, recent form aside, to pull out a rabbit. Expect it to be uncomfortably close after an hour of play but for the visitors to run out of steam near the end. New Zealand win by 14.
NEW ZEALAND vs ENGLAND
Saturday, June 7, 07:35 GMT, Auckland
Referee: Nigel Owens (WRU)
Assistants: Jaco Peyper (SARU) & Jérôme Garces (FFR)
TMO: George Ayoub (ARU)
