Everyone remembers the horrors of Cardiff on England’s last visit. It didn’t just cost the championship, it cost several players spots on the Lions tour. What was meant to be a tremendous contest turned into a beating. This is a significantly different England side this time around, but their coaches and captain will be drumming in the importance of redemption just the same. With so many injuries it still looks a tall task, taking on a full strength Welsh side at their spiritual home, short on confidence and long rap sheet of question marks.
Stuart Lancaster’s hand has been forced at many positions but he has still found room to spring a couple surprises. Joe Marler retains his spot ahead of Alex Corbisiero, who doesn’t even get a bench spot with Mako Vunipola preferred as an impact sub. The rest of the forwards are predictable, but the bench looks unusual with no dedicated second row sub.
Nick Easter appears to be the one most likely to cover, with Tom Croft also an option, but Lancaster seems to be putting an awful lot of faith in both Dave Attwood and George Kruis staying fit and fresh for the full 80 minutes. For all Easter’s good form this year and Croft’s undoubted abilities, surely Graham Kitchener would have been the better option on the bench. It’s not the sort of decision that might cost a match, but it’s certainly bizarre.
Most of the questions in recent week centered around who would occupy the midfield, and it’s Luther Burrell and Jonathan Joseph who get the call. Joseph is one of the form centres in Europe so he’s a good shout, but Burrell has had mixed form, and most importantly was utterly man-shamed by Jamie Roberts in the Saints-Toulon fixture only a week ago. His selection is a considerable vote of confidence from Lancaster, and with Billy Twelvetrees on the bench, Burrell will have to show up early or risk getting the hook.
Wales have gone with the status quo, with absolutely no surprises. George North and Richard Hibbard are fit and back in the side, and Liam Williams has to settle for a bench spot. Scott Williams is unlucky to be left out, with North looking like the backup option at centre should any change be required. Sam Warburton wins his 50th cap and he will be hoping to celebrate in style.
England can be as fired up as they want, but they are still up against it, with a settled Welsh side looking to dominate in the contact area and use the boot of Leigh Halfpenny to keep the scoreboard ticking over. Burrell’s personal battle with Roberts will be key, and if he struggles again his side will have no hope. This should be a fierce and competitive match, particularly up front, but superiority in firepower, experience, and cohesion combined with home field advantage should be too much to overcome. Take Wales by 6.
WALES vs ENGLAND
Friday, February 6, 21:00 GMT, Cardiff
Referee: Jérôme Garcès (FFR)
Assistants: Romain Poite (FFR) & Mathieu Raynal (FFR)
TMO: Simon McDowell (IRFU)
