Let’s get this over with before any false hopes arise – Scotland are not going to win this year’s tournament. Worse, they’ll probably come dead last. Their best chance, oddly enough, is probably in round 4 against France at a destitute Murrayfield, but even the Italians in Rome should prove to be too tall a proposition. There are various reasons for this sort of prediction, but most stem from the predicament surrounding their coach.
When Vern Cotter was named by SRU chief Mark Dodson as the new head coach of Scotland last match most raised an eyebrow in surprise, a welcome one, but there was a caveat – he wouldn’t be taking over the reins until more than a year later. Until then, Scott Johnson would act as caretaker and head selector. Whispers of an early release from Clermont never came to fruition, so for the past several months Scottish players have puttered along in the knowledge that in due course the man pulling the strings would be shuffled upstairs and yet another opportunist would try his luck. Success in Scottish rugby does not come without turmoil.
Unfortunately for Scottish fans it means that their national side has become a sort of merry-go-round, not just in coaching but in playing personnel, as Johnson has taken cause to select nearly every player within an inch of eligibility in an effort to expand the stiflingly narrow bandwidth of talent at Scotland’s disposal. In doing so he has acquired some genuine prospects, the likes of Kieran Low and Duncan Taylor come to mind, but he has also sacrificed results and it will yet be another year, at least, before stability and continuity finally returns to the side.
Taking a long-term view this might be a necessary evil, though it challenges the perseverance of the already fickle Scottish fans. What they do have to look forward to, with certainty, is the rise of several talents to international quality – the Gray brothers, Stuart Hogg, and Mark Bennett – but there remain serious questions at other positions, not least of which the troublesome flyhalf position. That former Lions playmaker Gregor Townsend is evidently unable to discern which of Duncan Weir or Ruaridh Jackson should be preferred for Glasgow tells you all you need to know about their stature within the national quarters.
Thankfully injuries will play only a minor role in the beginning of the championship, with Al Kellock, Tim Visser, and Peter Horne the only long-term withdrawals, though Euan Murray will miss at least the first two tests and Tommy Seymour is struggling with a corked thigh and both Matt Scott and Ross Rennie are short of match fitness. Given Johnson’s propensity for unusual selections it’s fair to say that at least some of those players might have missed out anyway.
So what to expect then? A side with some talent and perhaps ambition, but not enough experience or resolve to close out any tight games that might be on offer. Their home pitch will feel as foreign as the road and only personal pride will keep them from completely capitulating. The road looks long and bumpy, but the good news is help is on the way.
HEAD COACH – Scott Johnson
A strange man and one somewhat polarizing among the pundits, though he appears to be well liked by his players. Some enjoy his off-beat character and find him refreshing, others consider him too aloof for his own good. Most would agree that he isn’t best suited for a head coach role, and indeed so does the SRU, and with the end his tenure in sight, it’s fair to say his time as headmaster won’t be long remembered.
CAPTAIN – Kelly Brown
An unlikely captain given his soft-spoken demeanor, but one highly respected by fans and teammates alike for his tireless work ethic on the pitch. It’s almost a shame that such a team player hasn’t been rewarded with more success, and he wouldn’t have looked out of place in a Lions jersey in the summer had he been so honoured. He’s not the best openside flanker available for Scotland, but he’s still their hardest working forward.
KEY PLAYER – Stuart Hogg
With so few top class players at their disposal it’s no wonder that the Scottish attack languishes when the Glasgow fullback is absent. Since he burst onto the scene in 2012 he has proved his country’s most potent strike runner, doing so to such effect that many have called for him to be moved to centre to provide him with more opportunity. The freedom that the no15 jersey affords suits him, however, and it’s from there that he will start this campaign in the hopes of sparking something unexpected.
ONE TO WATCH – Greig Tonks
You know things are desperate when a player with only four professional starts at flyhalf is already being touted as a test possibility. That’s not to say that Tonks isn’t capable. He’s a fine player who has excelled as a fullback and possesses the natural talent to succeed at no10, but Stephen Larkham he is not. If he can get through the Saxons match in any sort of reasonable capacity, expect him to get a shot at the championship, possibly in Rome.
FUTURE STAR – Jonny Gray
It’s a bit of a cheat given that he’s already won two caps, but the younger Gray is being touted by many as the better of the two. If they’re right, then Scotland have themselves something truly special. Jonny is shorter but more robust, and appears to be a natural leader given that he has already been named captain of Scotland ‘A’ when he is still eligible for the u20s. A Scottish second row featuring two Gray Lions seems inevitable, and that’s something worth getting excited about.
